Friday, 7 December 2012

Preview: Birmingham City home

 It's the biggest derby of the weekend at Molineux (Manchester who?) as Wolves meet the Bluenoses in the West Midlands Derby - a game that has become a far more frequent encounter in recent years than each club's respective main derbies. Wolves come into this one on the back of their first win since the start of October, overcoming Bristol City 4-1 at Ashton Gate last Saturday. As a result, spirit is high in the Old Gold camp and Wolves will be looking to use this derby to get some momentum to help re-kickstart their campaign.

Wade Elliot wins the FA Cup replay for Birmingham
Wolves - overall - have a very good record against Birmingham City. In the League, we've met 120 times and have won 56 of those encounters compared to Blues' 36. However, recent success in this derby has been hard to come by for Wolves. Our last league win over Birmingham (a 1-0 Premier League success in December 2010) was our first victory over them in 11 League attempts. In recent years, particularly at Molineux, it has been the Brummies that have come out on top, with 3 wins here in their last 5 visits in League and Cup. The last meeting between the two was an FA Cup Third Round Replay at Molineux in January 2012. With both teams playing weakened sides, the game was an incredibly dull affair which statistically Wolves just shaded, but in truth neither team put in a performance to be proud of. Birmingham won it though, a scrappy winner from Wade Elliot after Wolves failed to deal with a corner properly. Colin Doyle in the Blues' goal was vital for them, keeping out Steven Fletcher and Stephen Hunt right at the death but in truth Wolves didn't deserve to take it to extra-time. Games between the two sides, though, are generally determined by the odd goal. You have to go back 7 games between the two sides (back to 2008/09) to find a win of more than one goal. On a difficult Easter Monday night for Wolves, 10 man Birmingham inflicted a 2-0 defeat to close the gap at the top of the Championship table to just 2 points. Of course, Wolves would go up as eventual winners, finishing 7 points ahead of 2nd placed Birmingham.


Birmingham have had real defensive woes this season
This season hasn't been the best for the Bluenoses so far. After finishing in the play-offs (despite playing around 60 games that season thanks to their Europa League exploits), manager Chris Hughton decided to swap the Brummies for the Canaries. He was replaced by former Huddersfield manager Lee Clark. The Geordie, who arrived to a mixed reception, had hoped to continue where he left off with Huddersfield and the fantastic unbeaten run they had under him. However, it hasn't proved to be quite such a successful job for him yet. Birmingham have only won 6 games this season, with 4 home wins and 2 away. They're also in the bottom 5 for scoring too, having only scored 26 goals all season and averaging 1.3 goals per game. They're hardly water-tight at the back either, conceding 32 goals this season, a concerning average of 1.6 goals a game. The opposition have scored past them first in 13 games this season, an alarming 65% of games! When you consider that Wolves have scored first in 13 games, the Birmingham defence are going to have to be very alert - particularly in the first-half. Birmingham haven't been in the best of recent form either. Last Friday's 3-2 win over Middlesbrough at home was their first win in 5 games, and they haven't won away since a 1-0 success at Elland Road at the end of October. They are actually without an away win against any bottom-half side - the only club in the Championship with that 'honour'. Should Wolves score tomorrow, it will be Birmingham's 1500th away goal conceded in the second tier of English football. In Marlon King, though, they have a man who is a natural goalscorer at this level. The former-Watford man has got 13 goals so far this season (12 in the league) and has scored 9 goals in his last 9 games. He is a man on fire at the moment and will be the biggest threat to the Wolves backline with his pace, movement, strength and finishing ability. Something Birmingham are not lacking is supply in the wide areas either. Nathan Redmond is regarded as one of the brightest wide-men outside the Premier League, whilst at the other end of the age-scale Scottish winger Chris Burke is familiar to this level having had 3 years at Cardiff City. Young winger Rob Hall (who can also play as a striker or just behind) has made an instant impact since signing on loan from West Ham in November, whilst in Wade Elliot the Blues have someone who I feel is one of the best natural crossers of the ball in England. One thing in Wolves' favour is that Darren Ambrose is missing, however Ravel Morrison has taken over as Bimingham's string-puller in midfield and he will have to be marshalled very closely.


Johnson: Set to make his 400th appearance against his former club
For Wolves, despite losing Dave Edwards for up to 2 months with a hamstring (which in my opinion is a big blow), we can recall a hopefully refreshed Tongo Doumbia to the team. Last week's thrashing of The Robins' saw us employ a mixture of a 4-4-2 and 4-3-3 system which worked fantastically well. Albeit Birmingham are (only slightly) stronger defensively than Bristol, but I think a similar set-up to last week's will see us get at Birmingham right from the off and that could be crucial if we can get another early advantage. At the back we need to remain solid too. Roger Johnson - who will ironically be making his 400th career league appearance - will again be the main we look to to be a leader at the back. Hopefully Christophe Berra and Kevin Foley can build on their much-improved display at Ashton Gate too. Stale is a sensible, clever manager though and I think he'll stick with the same team (bar Edwards) that won so handsomely last weekend - after all, everyone in football knows changing a winning team is a very foolish thing to do.

Whilst it's well noted by both sets of fans that Wolves are a first-half team and Birmingham are a second-half team, this is a derby and everyone knows the form book goes out the window in these games. However, with Birmingham's defensive problems and our strikers flying after last week, I think we'll go at them first-half and could find ourselves a couple of goals up by half-time. That might just be enough to see us over the line and ignite our season yet again.

Prediction: Wolves 3-2 Birmingham

In Stale We Trust.

2 comments:

  1. You should re-consider what you wrote about last season's FA Cup replay; we did not start with a full strength team.

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    1. Fair play - it just looked a full-strength-looking team from the line-up I saw. I'll change it now though :)

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