Monday, 31 December 2012

Preview: Crystal Palace away

Wolves start 2013 by gladly escaping Molineux for 2 games, starting with a no-pressure trip to South London to face Ian Holloway's Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park. After two pathetic performances at home turf, and tensions running high in the stands, this game (and then Luton in the Cup) will be the perfect chance to regroup and regain some pride after recent embarassing showings against sides below us in the table.

SEB gives us the lead in monsoon conditions at Selhurst Park
Selhurst Park has always been a bit of a difficult place for Wolves to go to. Of our 25 League meetings in South London, we have only won 8 (although so have Palace). However, recent trips to Selhurst Park have proved a little more fruitful, losing only once in our last 5 visits (and that was an FA Cup Replay). Indeed, in our last 10 League visits (including the Play-Off Semi Final in 1997), we've only lost 3 times. Our last game there was in March 2009 in horrendous conditions, with heavy downpours and swirling wind battering the stadium. There was in fact some doubt as to whether the game would go ahead. But it did, and Wolves kicked off looking to end a run of 1 win in 11 games that threatened to derail their promotion challenge. But they came out quickly at Palace, with Kightly having a shot cleared off the line and Chris Iwelumo being denied by Julian Speroni, whilst at the other end Wayne Hennessey pulled off some brilliant saves to deny Paul Ifill. As it looked like Wolves were once again going to be denied all 3 points, Clint Hill brought down Michael Kightly as he burst into the box. Despite Palace's protests, the referee pointed to the spot and 15 minutes from time, Sylvan Ebanks-Blake smacked the penalty home to send the soaked Wolves fans home happy. It was a result that changed our season and saw us eventually go on to lift the Championship title.

SEB (again) gives us the lead against Palace at Molineux this season
Our last meeting with Palace, earlier this season, could also be seen to have changed our season - and not for the better. Solbakken said at the time that it was one of our performances of the season in the first-half, when we battered Palace but just couldn't get past Speroni. We eventually took the lead 8 minutes into the second-half, when a slip from Damien Delaney provided Ebanks-Blake with the perfect chance to slot the ball home. And it should've been 2-0 just 7 minutes later, as Doyle crashed a shot back off the crossbar. But Palace equalised 9 minutes later when Zaha - who looked to be offside - collected Glenn Murray's pass and ran unchallenged into the area to fire past Carl Ikeme. Then disaster struck for Wolves when Slawomir Peszko - who had been seemingly targeted all night - was sliced down by Jonathan Williams. It was later revealed he had torn his medial ligament and would be out for up to 4 months. Losing his power and pace on the right-wing meant Wolves had themselves a serious problem - one that hasn't been fixed to this day (as hard as Sigurdarson tries, he's not a winger). To compound their misery and sense of injustice, Zaha looked to have controlled the ball with his hand before turning and smashing a half-volley past Ikeme from 25 yards to bag a fortunate 3 points for the Londoners. It was that game that started to unravel our season, despite beating Blackburn the following weekend.

Ian Holloway - welcome replacement for Dougie Freedman
At the time, Palace were under the stewardship of Dougie Freedman and were flying - despite being below Wolves they were only 3 points off Cardiff who were top. This form continued and it looked for a while like it would be them and the Welsh side who would lead the way in the promotion race this season. However, out of the blue Freedman left to join Bolton Wanderers at the end of October - despite the Northerners langushing in 16th (compared to Palace who were 4th). He was replaced at Selhurst Park by Ian Holloway at the start of November and his first game in charge was, ironically, a 5-0 win over Wolves' recent conquerors Ipswich Town at home. Since then, they've gone on to lose just twice in Holloway's 11 games in charge, losing 2-1 away to both Leeds and Cardiff. Having said that, they haven't actually won their last 5 games, not tasting victory since a 3-0 home win over rivals Brighton on December 1st. And it is at home where they are at their best - they're unbeaten in their last 11 at Selhurst Park and have in fact only lost once at home all season, with a 3-2 defeat to Watford coming on the opening day of the season. They're also the joint-top scorers in the Championship, with 47 strikes matching Cardiff's record. Whilst we have scored first 15 times this season, Palace beat that with 16 first-strikes (and Cardiff have 17) though their record when scoring first is disappointing - only going on to pick up 30 points (which, whilst sounding good, is an average of 1.87 points per game - only Bristol and Bolton have worst PPG records when scoring first). As expected, keeping them out is going to be hard to do, with both them and Cardiff only failing to score once this season - another joint-top record in the division. However, Wolves can take heart from the fact that Palace have lost 20 points from winning positions this season - only Bolton have a worse record than that. Against sides in the bottom-half, Palace have a field day, racking up 8 wins and 3 drawing - the second-best record in the division. There are defensive woes for the home side tomorrow, with Damien Delaney serving the final game of his 3-match ban, and skipper Paddy McCarthy misses out with a groin injury. With those two key elements at the heart of the Palace defence missing, it should at least give Wolves some heart going into this tricky contest.

Zaha and Bolasie - able to cause Wolves plenty of problems
For a lot of Wolves fans, they will just be happy to see their side turn up and act like they're professional footballers, after the recent pathetic no-shows against Peterborough and Ipswich. In both games, very few of the players looked like they actually cared, and a big improvement must be made if Solbakken is to try and get the fans on side. However, whilst expectation of victory may have weighed heavily on the players' shoulders in the recent matches, this New Years Day clash provides an opportunity for Wolves to be underdogs and play without pressure. With Palace (and in particular the front 3 of Zaha, Murray and Bolasie) flying and tearing teams apart for fun, there's no sane Wolves fan out there that would expect to come away from South London with maximum points. Indeed, there's very few out there who would even dare hope for a point, given the recent abject showings by our team. The festive period, however, isn't often kind to us and along with our Boxing Day woes in recent years, we haven't fared too well on New Years Day either. We haven't taken any points from the first league match of a calendar year since 2008 (a 0-0 draw at home to Sheffield United) and have won just one year-opening League match in 10 seasons. However, we have appeared happier away from Molineux recently, winning 2 of our last 3 away games. That's not expected to continue tomorrow, however, with our record against top-half sides being the second-worst in the division - winning only twice and losing 8 times to pick up a return of 8 points (or 0.66 per game). Even if we do tak the lead tomorrow, Crystal Palace have won 4 games when losing and drawn 1, giving them a return of 13 points (whilst we have lost 17 points from winning positions this season).

Steve Morgan: January window is make or break
If I seem negative it's because... well because I am really. This has been a truly horrific year to be a Wolves fan - the worst I've ever known (thankfully I wasn't alive during our dreadful 80s years). But 2013 represents a new start for us hopefully, and it all begins with one man - Steve Morgan. Now is the time to back the man that, lest we forget, he chose and he specifically went to meet. All Molineux eyes are on the Chairman's pockets to see just how deep he will dig - and yet unfortunately it is the man in the manager's hotseat who has been left to face the flak and the abuse. We cannot have a repeat of the last 2 January windows when the club make a big deal of this supposed "January Warchest" that only produced Jake Cassidy, Leigh Griffiths and Eggert Jonsson to name but a few. We need quality that can come in and change our season. There are two ways our season can go, and they both rest on this transfer window. If Morgan backs Solbakken, we can bring in the neccessary quality and climb the table. If he doesn't, we won't buy anyone anywhere near good enough and will probably face a repeat of last season with Solbakken being sacked mid-February and Wolves limping for the rest of the season, facing up to relegation and cold, Tuesday night trips to Yeovil and Carlisle. It may sound drastic and far-fetched, but it is a reality we need to accept. And that is why it is down to Morgan to open his pockets and for Moxey to let him. Otherwise this club is facing real trouble.

I'd like to think that, after such a terrible year for us all, we'd start the new one on a high. But I just can't see it - given how well Palace are doing and how badly we seem to be struggling. Being away from Molineux will help, but the table does not lie and I believe Palace will have just too much for us.

Prediction: Crystal Palace 3-1 Wolves

In Stale We Trust.

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