Friday, 15 February 2013

Preview: Derby away

Wolves will be looking to build on the good feeling around the place after last week's last-gasp draw with Leeds, as they travel to Pride Park to face Nigel Clough's inconsistent Derby County side.

Andy Keogh with that celebration after the goal that all but took us up
Of course, Wolves' last trip to Derby was one that will live long in the memory of Wolves fans. Having gone 1-0 up early on through Andy Keogh's fantastic volley, they then found themselves 2-1 down. But with 15 minutes left Matt Jarvis finished at the back stick. And then the moment that every Wolves fan will remember forever - with 3 minutes of normal time remaining, Keogh put a diving header beyond Stephen Bywater. It sparked one of the most iconic images of recent times at Wolves - that shirtless celebration from Keogh. It was the goal that told Wolves fans the team had almost done it - with the team only needing a win against QPR to be assured of promotion. Wolves do have happy memories of trips to Derby - they're unbeaten there in their last 8 games (winning 5) and have won their last 3 visits to Pride Park. If we win tomorrow, it would actually be our 50th League win over Derby County. Our last meeting with them - back in August - finished with Derby enjoying a stoppage-time equaliser. Theo Robinson curled a shot past Carl Ikeme in the 93rd minute to give The Rams a point when, in truth, they deserved all 3.

Scoring at home is something Derby have been used to this season
The problem with Derby this season is they have struggled to show consistency in their form. Their last 6 League games have seen a run of WLDWDL, whilst the 6 before saw them LWWLLD. It's that form that sees Nigel Clough's side sitting in a steady position of 10th in the Championship and, at present, The Rams look destined for yet another season of mid-table mediocrity. But it seems to be that it's their form against the better sides that stops them being anything more. 29 of their 42 points this season have come against sides in the bottom half of the division. Interestingly enough 29 points is the same amount that they've earned at home this season - giving them the 5th best home record in the Championship. That home form has really picked up of late too, with 3 wins and a draw from their last 5 at home. So Pride Park is certainly a place that, at the moment, Wolves should fear going to. Derby also have the second-best home goals record in the League, scoring 33 goals at Pride Park this season. However, at the back for Derby, they face a big blow with left-back Gareth Roberts suspended after being sent off in their midweek defeat to Hull. John Brayford may find himself switched to left-back in his place (and would thus make his 100th League start for the club), or Derby may hand a start to youngster Michael Hoganson. Up front the partnership of Jamie Ward and Theo Robinson is likely to cause Wolves all sorts of problems, while Will Hughes continues to pull the strings for County in midfield.

New signing Kaspars Gorkss should help shore up the defence
The last time Wolves visited Pride Park, they needed a vital win to give them one foot in the Premier League. The reality of this weekend's trip up the A38 is incredibly different. Wolves know they need a win to keep their heads above water in the battle against relegation to League One. With Dean Saunders without a win in his 5 games in charge, last weekend's spirited draw to Leeds (when Wolves, in truth, deserved all 3 points) will give the manager hope that things are about to turn. The addition of Reading loanee Kaspars Gorkss - who should thankfully replace Christophe Berra - will add solidity to a defence in which Danny Batth is finally beginning to shine. The youngster from Brierley Hill took his goal well and could, in fact, have had a hattrick - heading over from close range and having another cleared off the line. Further forward, and Saunders appears to be opting for a 5-man midfield, relying on Doyle and Sako to get forward and support Ebanks-Blake up front. Strangely the manager doesn't seem to favour Slawomir Peszko, having left him on the bench for Leicester and dropped him from the squad altogether for the visit of Leeds United. He has said in the press this week that the Pole does still have a role to play, but whether Saunders backs that up by selecting him remains to be seen.

Derby are flying at home lately, whereas Wolves can't seem to find a win even when they give one of their best performances of the season. But it's often the case that, when things are looking completely hopeless at Molineux, the team pull something out of the bag - just look back at the unexpected wins over our Premier League years. And it's for that reason I'm going to back Wolves to give the manager his first win.

Prediction: Derby 1-2 Wolves

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